2007-08-15

Y2K-error: an inconvenient truth

De dramatische temperatuurstijgingen rond het jaar 2000, gepubliceerd door het NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS). die talloze malen zijn gebruikt om het effect van Global Warming aan te tonen blijken te berusten op een jaar-2000-error in de computerberekeningen:

Steve McIntyre, the Canadian statistician who helped to expose massive holes in Michael Mann’s hockey stick methodology, looked into it. After some poking around, he began to suspect that the GISS data base had a year 2000 bug in one of their data adjustments.
[...]
Today, the GISS admitted that McIntyre was correct, and has started to republish its data with the bug fixed. And the numbers are changing a lot. Before today, GISS would have said 1998 was the hottest year on record (Mann, remember, said with up to 99% certainty it was the hottest year in 1000 years) and that 2006 was the second hottest. Well, no more. Here are the new rankings for the 10 hottest years in the US, starting with #1:
  • 1934, 1998, 1921, 2006, 1931, 1999, 1953, 1990, 1938, 1939
via: Watts Up With That?: 1998 no longer the hottest year on record in USA